Possible scenario
Multi-Day Shut-Ins
35% Chance
Isaias causes rough seas and logistical disruptions that keep a large share of Gulf output offline for several days. Physical crude markets tighten temporarily, but the event remains a sector-specific supply disruption rather than a broad macro shock.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.4%
Tickers
- OXY+0.4%
- VLO-0.3%
- +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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