Possible scenario
Russian Retaliation
18% Chance
Moscow responds with a larger missile and drone barrage against Ukrainian energy, rail, or drone-production facilities. This is a familiar retaliation pattern and would deepen near-term war risk without necessarily changing NATO policy.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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