Possible scenario
Invitation Revoked
32% Chance
The White House concludes that bipartisan pressure, allied objections, and the ICC warrant make Putin's attendance too costly. Trump frames the reversal as leverage over Moscow rather than a concession to Senate critics.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Energy +0.2%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.