Possible scenario
Diplomatic Compromise
20% Chance
The White House uses the Senate letter as leverage rather than immediately accepting or rejecting it. Putin's participation becomes conditional on progress in Ukraine talks, allowing Trump to claim toughness while keeping negotiations alive.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.5%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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