Possible scenario
Regulators Fill Vacuum
20% Chance
If Congress remains blocked, the SEC and CFTC are likely to keep shaping crypto policy through enforcement, guidance, and court filings. That outcome favors incremental and uneven regulation rather than the comprehensive statutory framework Coinbase and other crypto firms have sought since 2023.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
- Technology -0.1%
Tickers
- COIN-2.7%
- MSTR-1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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