Partisan Stalemate Holds

The most likely path is continued partisan deadlock after the 49-50 vote, with Republicans blaming Democrats and Democrats pointing to the unresolved ethics dispute. The bill remains alive rhetorically but does not regain the 60-vote path needed for Senate passage in the near term.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.