Possible scenario
Bipartisan Rewrite Advances
26% Chance
A narrower bipartisan negotiation remains plausible because many Democrats supported crypto market-structure concepts before the ethics fight overtook the Sept. 15 vote. Tim Scott, Cynthia Lummis, Kirsten Gillibrand, and industry-facing Democrats could try to add ethics provisions while preserving SEC-CFTC jurisdictional clarity.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
- Technology +0.1%
Tickers
- COIN+2.3%
- +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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