Possible scenario
Dollar Reverses Lower
15% Chance
A less likely but plausible outcome is a reversal if incoming US data or central-bank commentary challenges the idea of additional Fed tightening. Because the dollar rally is tied closely to rate expectations, a dovish repricing could quickly lift risk assets and weaken the dollar.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Bitcoin Up
- US dollar Down
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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