Possible scenario
Dollar Rally Extends
45% Chance
The most likely path is a continuation of the dollar move as markets price a higher-for-longer Federal Reserve while the ECB remains well into its easing cycle. Higher Treasury yields and rate differentials keep capital flowing into dollar assets, but the move remains orderly rather than crisis-like.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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