Possible scenario
Schedule Soon Released
38% Chance
The White House and USTR likely treat the missing timeline as an implementation issue rather than a breakdown in the September trade truce. Legal drafting, customs guidance, and verification of tariff-line lists delay the announcement for days or weeks, but the $60 billion reduction package remains intact.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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