Possible scenario
Retaliatory Friction Returns
18% Chance
Beijing interprets the missing timeline as bad-faith implementation and begins signaling countermeasures through MOFCOM, customs inspections, or state-media commentary. This is a lower-probability but material deterioration from a technical delay to renewed trade confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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