Possible scenario
Delay Becomes Bargaining
30% Chance
The withheld timeline becomes leverage in follow-on talks with Beijing over implementation, purchase targets, and sector exclusions. The tariff reductions are not formally abandoned, but investors discount some probability that the package slips into late 2026 or early 2027.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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