Possible scenario
Minor Gap Emerges
25% Chance
A technical issue is found in one part of the proof, but the broader strategy remains credible. Zhao Song and Xinzhi Zhang revise the manuscript, and the community treats the conjecture as likely solved pending repair.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.