Possible scenario
Regulatory friction
15% Chance
Competition, environmental, or provincial review issues slow the closing timetable even if the deal remains likely to complete. The most realistic risk is delay rather than outright rejection, given Canada's history of allowing upstream consolidation with conditions.
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
Tickers
- ATH+12.8%
- CVE-3.3%
- CNQ-0.6%
- SU-0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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