Possible scenario
Small Business Squeeze
20% Chance
The inflation burden falls most visibly on smaller firms with less pricing power and weaker access to credit. The market impact centers on lenders, payroll processors, merchant platforms, and consumer-facing cyclicals.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.6%
- Finance -0.5%
- Technology -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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