Possible scenario
Higher-for-Longer Fed
42% Chance
The Fed treats AI-related electricity demand and pass-through costs as a meaningful upside risk to inflation. Markets price fewer near-term cuts, while small businesses face tighter credit and higher operating costs.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
- Technology -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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