Possible scenario
Democratic Midterm Wave
42% Chance
The 16-point low-income shift proves durable through the final weeks before the 2026 midterms. Democrats convert affordability anger over food prices, tariff pass-through, and safety-net cuts into a clear House majority and a more competitive Senate map.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare +0.4%
- Finance -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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