Possible scenario
Starmer Contains Revolt
27% Chance
Starmer's team uses the fiscal-cost estimate and electoral risk to block a formal rejoin campaign inside Labour. Burnham remains influential, but the party leadership prevents the issue from becoming a binding manifesto commitment.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.5%
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Business Services -0.2%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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