Possible scenario
Referendum Momentum Builds
22% Chance
Burnham's intervention shifts the political center of gravity enough for Labour backbenchers, Liberal Democrats and pro-EU Conservatives to organize around a referendum route. This is less likely than a managed delay, but plausible if polling shows clear public support for rejoining.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +1.3%
- Consumer Services +1.3%
- Business Services +1.1%
- Industrials +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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