Possible scenario
Managed Labour Pathway
38% Chance
Keir Starmer tries to contain Andy Burnham's rejoin push by creating a formal but slow process: a review of EU options, party consultation and no immediate referendum bill. This is the most likely outcome because it gives pro-EU Labour members a route forward while limiting exposure to the £5 billion annual-cost argument.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.7%
- Consumer Services +0.7%
- Industrials +0.6%
- Business Services +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.