Scenario description
Assume that through the resolution date China’s monetary authorities keep broad benchmark rates broadly on hold while relying mainly on targeted or administrative support. The supported toolkit may include the reported first-home mortgage subsidy program, the one-year PSL rate cut to 1.5% and expanded eligibility, the reported 700 billion yuan in quota additions including technology relending and other loans, liquidity operations such as reverse repos, policy-bank credit support, and yuan midpoint management. Any additional measures remain sector-specific, facility-specific, administrative, or liquidity-management actions rather than systemwide benchmark easing.