Possible scenario
Guided Yuan Appreciation
45% Chance
The PBOC continues using the daily fixing to signal comfort with a stronger yuan after the strongest midpoint since February 2023. This is the base case because the move follows earlier tolerance for appreciation and comes after targeted liquidity support through PSL tools.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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