Possible scenario
Growth Worries Return
15% Chance
Weak Chinese activity or credit data overwhelms the PBOC's stronger fixing signal. In this scenario, investors conclude the stronger yuan is difficult to sustain while monetary and quasi-fiscal support is still being expanded.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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