Possible scenario
De-Escalation Takes Hold
20% Chance
Back-channel diplomacy through Oman or UN channels produces a short pause in attacks, while Saudi Arabia publicizes additional airport security measures. Markets would treat this as a relief scenario, especially for airlines and travel services.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.2%
- Energy -0.3%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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