Possible scenario
Attacks Continue
26% Chance
The Houthis attempt to sustain pressure on Saudi airports after warning airlines to avoid them. This would extend cancellations, force more carriers to suspend service, and add a modest geopolitical risk premium to oil and travel assets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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