Possible scenario
OMB Restores Funds
42% Chance
The most likely path is that the White House treats the GAO opinion as a serious legal setback and directs the Office of Management and Budget to restore most of the withheld funding. This would mirror the administration’s earlier pattern of retreating after adverse rulings while preserving its broader legal arguments.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.2%
- Healthcare +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.