Possible scenario
Israel Route Fallout
18% Chance
The reported plan to crash the aircraft in Israel turns the case into a Gulf-Israel aviation security issue. The most likely version involves tighter route procedures rather than a rupture in UAE-Israel ties.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.8%
- Industrials +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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