Possible scenario
Isolated Insider Attack
45% Chance
UAE investigators conclude the co-pilot acted alone, with no operational support beyond his own access to the cockpit and crash axe. This is the base case because the timeline points to known radical views and a specific individual rather than a confirmed organized cell.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.