Possible scenario
Limited De-Escalation Window
25% Chance
Washington and Tehran avoid new direct clashes after the Lincoln's departure, with Oman and Qatar continuing quiet messages on maritime restraint. The carrier's return is read as a modest sign that the worst phase of the summer strain may be easing.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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