Possible scenario
Paxton Extends Attack
25% Chance
Ken Paxton’s campaign decides the absence story is still useful because it fits a broader argument that Talarico is not transparent with voters. Republican strategists push the issue through television, radio, and social media rather than letting the news cycle move on.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.