Possible scenario
Schedule Slips Later
29% Chance
A significant probability remains that the Q3 2028 date proves optimistic, given advanced-chip manufacturing complexity, tool lead times, yield learning and Texas infrastructure demands. This would reduce confidence in Musk’s plan to internalize AI-chip supply on the announced timetable.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.4%
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
- TSLA-4.0%
- SPCX-2.5%
- NVDA+0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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