Possible scenario
Q3 2028 Ramp Holds
38% Chance
The most likely path is that Tesla and SpaceX keep the Q3 2028 volume-production target credible, with engineering work proceeding but major revenue impact still distant. Markets treat the date as a modest validation of Musk’s vertical-integration plan rather than a near-term semiconductor disruption.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.6%
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
- TSLA+3.3%
- SPCX+2.4%
- NVDA-0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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