Possible scenario
Hawkish Repricing
30% Chance
Investors conclude that if the Fed sees no systemic risk, officials have less reason to pause after the September hike. The immediate market impact is a modest hawkish repricing rather than a banking-sector panic.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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