Possible scenario
Texas Fab Proceeds
38% Chance
The $16.8 billion Texas fab moves ahead largely as announced, with Musk-linked demand from Tesla vehicles, Dojo-style AI workloads, Starlink terminals, and SpaceX avionics anchoring the project. The supplier shift away from China is treated as a strategic localization step rather than a broader market shock.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.0%
- Industrials +0.6%
Tickers
- TSLA+3.1%
- SPCX+2.3%
- AMAT+1.6%
- LRCX+0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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