Possible scenario
Execution Problems Emerge
27% Chance
The project encounters predictable fab-construction difficulties, including equipment lead times, clean-room complexity, permitting, skilled-labor shortages, and non-Chinese materials qualification. Markets react more to Tesla and SpaceX execution risk than to a broad semiconductor repricing.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.7%
- Industrials -0.2%
Tickers
- TSLA-3.8%
- SPCX-1.9%
- INTC+0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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