Possible scenario
China Retaliation Risk
20% Chance
China responds politically or commercially to Terafab’s supplier cuts, especially if Washington presents the move as part of a wider technology-containment strategy. The most realistic market impact is targeted pressure on Tesla’s China exposure and Chinese semiconductor suppliers, not a full macro crisis.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.7%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
Tickers
- TSLA-4.3%
- SPCX-0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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