Possible scenario
Regime Hardens Rule
25% Chance
The Islamic Republic survives the crisis by centralizing authority around the Supreme Leader, the IRGC, and emergency economic controls. The government expands subsidies and rationing, accepting higher inflation and industrial contraction to prevent urban unrest from becoming an organized national revolt.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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