Possible scenario
Negotiated Energy Pause
24% Chance
Regional mediators, backed by China and European governments worried about energy inflation, push both sides toward a limited pause focused on energy infrastructure. The deal does not resolve the war, but it reduces the near-term probability of attacks on gas lines, refineries, and export terminals.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +2.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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