Possible scenario
Contained Energy Attrition
38% Chance
Iran absorbs repeated gas-line and processing-node strikes without a decisive military or political break. Tehran prioritizes household heating and power generation, while industry faces rolling shutdowns and the IRGC expands protection of pipelines and compressor stations.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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