Possible scenario
War Premium Persists
30% Chance
Fighting around the Strait of Hormuz remains contained but frequent enough to keep tanker insurance, freight, and crude spreads volatile. PetroChina and other Chinese state-linked buyers benefit from access to discounted Iranian barrels while global consumers face higher oil costs.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.1%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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