Possible scenario
US Coalition Escalates
27% Chance
Washington, London, and Gulf partners increase naval operations after tanker attacks continue despite escorts. Markets focus on whether the campaign restores safe passage or triggers direct combat with Iranian forces.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.1%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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