Possible scenario
Diplomatic Pause Emerges
22% Chance
Regional mediators attempt to separate the tanker-security crisis from the wider confrontation with Iran. A temporary safe-passage arrangement is plausible because all sides face rising economic and military costs from a prolonged closure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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