Possible scenario
Democratic Wave Builds
38% Chance
Trump's record-low pre-midterm approval makes a Democratic House pickup the most likely baseline. Economic dissatisfaction, tariff-related price pressure, and suburban erosion give Democrats a stronger path than Republicans in competitive districts.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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