Possible scenario
US-Japan Policy Bargain
25% Chance
Washington treats the hike as proof that Tokyo is cooperating on yen support and trade rebalancing. The next phase depends on whether the Trump administration converts that cooperation into tariff restraint or demands additional yen appreciation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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