Possible scenario
Orderly BOJ Normalization
40% Chance
The Bank of Japan frames the 1.25% rate as a normalization step rather than the start of an aggressive tightening cycle. Markets absorb the move because wage growth, sticky services inflation, and prior yen-support intervention had already prepared investors for a higher-rate Japan.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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