Possible scenario
Russian Digital Retaliation
27% Chance
Moscow responds asymmetrically against Ukrainian command, telecom, and cloud infrastructure rather than escalating directly against NATO. The most likely retaliation is a mix of missile strikes on Ukrainian data sites and cyberattacks on public services.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.6%
- Telecommunications -1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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