Possible scenario
Strike Movement Expands
30% Chance
The 440 detentions become a rallying point for unions, civil servants and student organizations opposing the wage-index freeze. Rolling strikes spread from schools to municipal services, rail-adjacent workers and hospital support staff, creating a material but still contained domestic disruption.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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