Possible scenario
Budget Compromise Emerges
18% Chance
The government tries to defuse unrest by offering limited indexation for lower-paid civil servants and targeted school funding. This lowers the immediate protest temperature but risks reopening fiscal arguments in the National Assembly.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Finance +0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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