Possible scenario
Deeper Correction Unfolds
20% Chance
Bitcoin's recovery above $82,000 proves temporary as traders lock in gains from the post-ETF and post-halving rally. A move into the low-to-mid $70,000s would still fit within a volatile bull-market correction rather than a confirmed bear trend.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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