Possible scenario
Routine Federal Prosecution
45% Chance
The most likely path is a conventional federal terrorism-finance prosecution focused on Raed Yousef and named co-conspirators. The Justice Department uses bank records, charity solicitations, and wire-transfer evidence to seek a plea or trial without a major market or policy spillover.
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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